thenorth-4-6-16

Who Stands to Gain?

What does the north look like after all is said and done, assuming Imperium falls or at the very least is forced to concede outlying regions like Vale and Tribute permanently? As timers continue to tick all across the north, I began to wonder – who exactly is taking all this space?

Vale of the Silent

The former home of LAWN and Bastion also borders a more or less stable region, Geminate – so it is no surprise to see Geminate based alliances taking their neighbor’s misfortune for opportunity, in particular Infinity Space, which holds sov in both Geminate and Perrigen Falls. Shadow of xXDEATHXx and Legion of xXDEATHXx both appear poised to take at least a few systems in Vale as well – however, what is most peculiar about Vale as of today is how low the demand for space there is. Completely ceded by the Imperium, most timers are going to the defenders by default. For an enterprising alliance looking to move up in the world, Vale may be the best bet – already being overlooked by everyone and hardly contested, far enough away from Imperium that they voluntarily ceded it even before things took a turn for the worse, Vale presents an interesting opportunity space.

Tribute

The big news today in Tribute is that Mercenary Coalition took UMI-KK. I find it difficult to believe that they intend to keep it, but I have yet to see any word on whether they view the conquest as part of their IWI duties or something else. They have not taken anything else in Tribute, a region that while contested is still mostly stable due to the defection of CO2 away from the Imperium. The only space up for grabs would therefore lie between CO2 and whomever ends up moving into Vale, as well as the NPC space in Venal.

Fade

An incredibly small region when compared to most, Fade is nonetheless the region seeing the most diversity in terms of new occupants. NCdot, Exodus., and Chaos Theory all have space in Fade now, though it does appear that Pandemic Horde is poised to pick up most of what SMA drops as the latter slowly crumbles. What impact this might have on Horde holdings in Querious is unknown right now, but at their rate of growth they could probably actually make use of a totally new region.

Tenal

Initiative and Razor both stand poised to lose it all in Tenal, as the Drone Walkers make a concerted push into the region. Of all the combatants in World War Bee to date, Drone Walkers and Pandemic Horde appear to be the only ones set on actually taking space from Imperium – a little fact that lends credence to some of the rhetoric coming from The Mittani. With three and a half regions in play – and we haven’t even gotten to Pure Blind or Deklein itself yet – but only two alliances gaining lots of ground, one might wonder whether the Allies will actually only humble, rather than break, the Imperium. At any rate, Tenal seems to be falling at a steady clip into the hands of the Drone Walkers, which actually only has 50 pilots. Whether they can hold onto it in the aftermath of the war remains to be seen.

And the rest…

There is also some movement – consider it secondary effects of the war – in places like Querious, Perrigen Falls, and Fountain. The thing that no one is really talking about is how the sudden opening of four to six regions of nullsec might impact the rest of the universe. Will it weaken alliances in the long run? Will it lay fallow until the Imperium, bent on revenge, retakes all of it and returns us to the status quo? Who in the world is going to move into all these empty systems?

All questions that remain unanswered.

6 comments
Wilhelm Arcturus
Wilhelm Arcturus

TEST took a station in Pure Blind today.  I think that means that the ADM values of adjoining systems are automatically one point lower as soon as they drop a TCU.  Not because of Fozzie Sov, just because that is what living next door to TEST is like.  Fortunately I got my carrier out of that station earlier in the week.  Pure Blind is in play, but only for non-Goon systems it seems.  I think our new plan should be to hand all sov to GSF and see if the pattern holds.

proceduraldave
proceduraldave moderator

@Wilhelm Arcturus The only doubt I have as to whether or not GSF sov will come under attack is the rather pressing issue of who is taking all this border space. Four, five regions on fire - and only two alliances really seem concerned with taking any of it? This is problematic. 


Besides, as a prominent former Goon once said - you kill them by cutting them apart piece by piece. Mittens himself has made a motto out of 'headshots don't work'. To put it in RL history terms (as everyone seems to be doing now), the allies fought in Africa and invaded Italy before D-Day for a reason. This is the way you cut down a juggernaut.

Wilhelm Arcturus
Wilhelm Arcturus

@proceduraldave @Wilhelm Arcturus If I have to read another WWII analogy being applied to this war I may be physically ill.  Read my response to Stabs on my blog post today, since he went with the same analogy.  Also, why does nobody go for Napoleonic analogies?  At least Mittens gives us ancient Rome once in a while.

proceduraldave
proceduraldave moderator

@Wilhelm Arcturus I think WWII gets trotted out as it is the most accessible - ancient Rome comparisons fall down because the Romans were vastly different culturally on many important levels. 


I do appreciate the references to Fabius Maximus Cunctator from Mittens, but something he probably doesn't realize is that Hannibal inflicted terrible defeats on the Romans that led to the near extermination of an entire generation of Romans (leading to problems within a few generations), Hannibal had ample opportunity to sack Rome but hesitated for unknown reasons (most likely unrelated to the militaristic conditions of the day, though), succeeded in stripping Rome of most its allies, and in the end was only unsuccessful because of politics (akin to the Vietnam War scenario that played out in the US) that had little to do with Hannibal's campaign. 


Still, it's a nice analogy on the surface level. And if he really is looking at the long term (measured in years), then yeah this could be a nice opportunity to trim the fat of the Imperium and emerge leaner and stronger than ever before. 


Or everyone could realize that real life analogies fall down when we realize that for most, territory in a video game isn't nearly the same as your home town actually being burned to the ground by foreigners.

Wilhelm Arcturus
Wilhelm Arcturus

@proceduraldave @Wilhelm Arcturus Also, that question was rhetorical.  I forgot to embed the appropriate tag.  

I read up on Fabius last night, from the same Wikipedia article Mittens did, as I recognized the passage he copied and pasted.


But yes, if Berlin had only been a titan bridge and 12 gates from London, I am not sure the allies would have bothered with Normandy, much less the Operation Torch landings in North Africa.

proceduraldave
proceduraldave moderator

@Wilhelm Arcturus @proceduraldave I'm actually a super nerd when it comes to Rome - I've read Livy, Plutarch, Polybius, Sallust, Cassius Dio, Caesar, Tacitus, mostly translations but some in Latin as well. This is what you get when you mention Roman things near me~